This paper investigates the theory and evidence that history plays a role in shaping the direction of international trade. Because there are reasons to anticipate a positive correlation between the ...

Detection of such bias is challenging because the research process itself is not normally part of a controlled experimental setting. Our analysis exploits a rare opportunity where 158 researchers ...

What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history. It uncovers the universal wheels of change that ...

We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify ...

Previous research on unemployment insurance (UI) has focused on the costs of the program, in terms of the distorting effects of generous UI benefits on worker and firm behavior. For assessing the ...

This paper reconsiders the Phelps-Lucas hypothesis, according to which temporary real effects of purely nominal disturbances result from imperfect information, but departs from the assumptions of ...

We hypothesize and find evidence that banks use venture investments in fintech startups as a strategic approach to navigate fintech competition. We show that banks’ venture investments have ...

Blanchard, Olivier J. and Lawrence H. Summers. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Stanley Fischer, ed. Vol 1, Fall 1986 ...

Using comprehensive loan-level data in China, we investigate how the deregulation on bank entry barriers alters local banking industrial organisation and its economic consequences. We document a novel ...

The economic costs of environmental regulations have been widely debated since the U.S. began to restrict pollution emissions more than four decades ago. Using detailed production data from nearly 1.2 ...

A new study of German and Swedish data finds that men’s earnings increase following a couple’s move to a new commuting zone, while women’s earnings stay the same or decline at the outset. Couples are ...

Two different models - one based on local geographical externalities and the other on the variety of only locally available intermediate services - are shown to give rise to a simple, estimable ...